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“Correlation & Causation are essential …
… if you plan to draw a realistic Conclusion …”
I am going to include a Long Form Post as an explanation, with this Earlism.
Now, I know that most people are “math averse.” More simply put, I know most people hate math!
But stick with me …
I am actually not math averse. I am pretty comfortable with math and statistics. Although I hide this fact from most of my general conversations, because I know I am among the few, and not the many.
Due to my level of comfort with math, many times when I watch Cable News, any of the channels, I get so OFFENDED when they discuss and cite polls & surveys as definitive facts. And try to use them as proof. I get offended, because I actually understand the math and statistics related to what the Talking Heads on Cable News are saying.
I know why mathematicians always say that:
“there are lies, (darned) lies, & statistics.”
They should have also thrown in “Polls & Surveys” at the end of that list of lies. Alas, they would never do that because most math averse Talking Heads love citing (stupid) surveys!
Anyway, the Cable News Talking Heads, and others who watch and unknowingly repeat them, throw specious statistics at you based on survey data. Then they improperly apply the survey results. And use the results to draw a false conclusion or a “False Positive” (Type I Error).
See Earlism #51: Apples, Oranges, & False Positives, which I will post tomorrow …
They will say; since all, or a majority of “all people” stated on the survey that they like or dislike someone or something …
… that Cause …
… means that this person or thing is …
… in Effect …
… liked or disliked by most or “all people.”
Causal, or Cause & Effect reasoning.
What they will do is take some public affairs issue or idea that they espouse.
Then, based on a survey that they have taken, without regard to appropriate random sampling technique or respondent size.
They say that “the survey shows that the public likes or dislikes, this person, policy, or public official.”
However, they cannot definitively say that the “public” likes or dislikes something or someone, when they do not know how many people, randomly chosen, from all walks of life, actually shared their opinion on the survey question.
No human being, surveyor, or Cable News Talking Head, can definitely relate two things without proof.
Nor can they “Co-Relate” (Correlate) the majority public opinion, which is generally based on a “feeling” anyway.
A “feeling” which will likely change within the next fifteen minutes.
As opposed to the survey respondent basing their stated response to the survey question on a critically analyzed and well reasoned “thought.”
No one who understands Surveys, Statistics, & Math can Correlate two separate entities, without showing how they overwhelming relate to each other.
And without showing how they collected a representative sample of the opinions of most or all people.
Then the Cable News anchor, or the people who conduct and report their survey. Or a member of the viewing audience who repeats this nonsense, will cite that survey and its poorly derived conclusion, to “support” their point of view.
You cannot draw a proper Conclusion about “what ALL or most people think” …
… if you have received poorly collected and analyzed survey data.
AND you cannot definitively draw a Conclusion about what “most or all people think” …
… unless you ask “all of the people” …
You have to ask them what THEY ALL believe. Or at least, get an actual, randomly selected sample of responses from “all types of people.”
Because, you did not ask “ALL PEOPLE.”
Nor did you ask a “random sample” of “ALL PEOPLE.”
You only asked:
all of the people who were home that day, or those who watch your Cable News channel, or who receive your emails, or those who decided that they were having a BORING enough day that they could waste five minutes and respond to your survey. Or those people who just saw the survey online, on YOUR website and clicked it. Or those people who signed up with your survey group to take YOUR surveys!
That is not “All People” … People!
That is a survey of “all of your people.”
Thus, you cannot draw a definitive conclusion, that (Co) Relates to what “all people” think …
… unless you ask “all people.”
“An apple is a fruit …
… an orange is a fruit …
… Therefore …
… an Apple is an Orange …”
“I never drive ‘Back Down Memory Lane’ …
… I don’t need to revisit that Street.”
“I’m eatin’ it, ain’t I?”
“He should just know …!”
“Color outside of the lines …
This is a segment of a Short Essay that I wrote a few years ago. In the unpublished portion, it describes the reasons why I LOVE Queen Abigail! And why I dedicated my favorite chapter in my book, A Personality Portrait to her and her Personality Type. Enjoy!
I don’t know where this is in the Bible but I know that it’s in there.
There are people who have such a Peace (of God) about them. A Peace that emanates from them, which God can use to literally arrest me. I don’t even know if I like these people, particularly when I am in one of my … “I like to fight and NEED to fight, because I have been legitimately offended. And I know how to extract my due retribution” … moods. I was just kidding, I really love them. And I love and appreciate God for putting them in my life.
This Arresting Peace, reminds me of Abigail and King David in I Samuel 25, …
“If you drop a clock into a drawer …
… it keeps telling time …”
I wanted to explain in a little more detail, the roughly three different types of posts that will appear on the Earlisms & Epigrams Blog page.
Posts will appear in random order and in the various styles described below. However, I am certain that no two will be the same.
The focus of the majority of the items that I post on the Earlisms & Epigrams page will be Exclusive Content. The bulk of these items will ONLY appear on this page. Most will be works that you will find nowhere else. The majority of posts will not appear on my other Social Media platforms or in Print.
Traditional Blog Posts
I will make some traditional or Long Form Blog posts. These will be the rarest of the different post formats. Over the years, I have written down many ideas, thoughts, and concepts. Some of these musings have been published. Some remain unpublished. Some may end up in future books. So I may not use them as posts on the Earlisms & Epigrams page. Or I may post a thought from a larger essay or book. It all depends on my mood and thoughts about what I have written as well as where I Believe it belongs.
Q & A Posts
A different type of post will be responses to reader’s questions (see web form below). This type of post served as the primary reason that I created this specific Earlisms & Epigrams page on my website. I wanted to do sort of a … “Dear Jones The Advisor” thing.
I wanted to create a webpage where I was afforded the opportunity to directly interact with those who visit the website. Hopefully frequently. I also wanted to do what I have always done. My Job, as I have come to call it. That is; use my Gifts & Experiences, in this case, in the area of Advising, to Help People.
I will read your submissions, sent via the webform on the Earlisms & Epigrams page, carefully. I already know that I may have to respond to some of your submissions privately. For those, I will use the email account (info@JonesTheAdvisor.com). This is the website email account, where the webform on the Earlisms & Epigrams page will send ALL of your questions and inquiries.
Some of the other inquiries that I receive will be ones that I Believe can be used to help many other readers. Readers who may be experiencing or have experienced similar circumstances to your own. I may select some of those submissions, ensuring to protect the anonymity of the person who submitted the question. And post the question, as well as my Best Response to the inquiry, in the form of a Blog post, using Question & Answer format.
Earlisms & Epigrams Posts
The third type of post that will appear on the Earlisms & Epigrams Blog page, are what I have come to call “Earlisms.”
These are little phrases that I have invented, adapted from a favorite quote, or just pulled out of thin air. They are useful, short statements, that provide clarity for me and others. They can also be used to aid many with their individual Life’s Journey.
In reality Earlisms are Epigrams.
Epigrams are short, often witty, and sage ideas or sayings that express a useful thought, typically in an amusing or clever way. They are conceived and written in that way, so they stick with you and remain in your memory. Then when you encounter a specific situation, you will Remember the Earlism and use it to help you push through a difficulty or obstacle.
These challenges occur in our lives, as we navigate our way through all of the blind alleys and hidden obstacles that appear, seemingly out of nowhere, as we proceed through our individual Life’s Journey. And as we Pursue our Purpose, Passions, & Goals.
Typically, I will just post Earlisms. I will leave it up to you to figure out the meaning.
However, you can use the webform to contact me if you need me to explain the specific Earlism in greater detail.
See, if I explain Earlisms … then they are no longer Epigrams.
Ask Jones The Advisor
Submit a question via the webform at the bottom of the page about any part of your Journey through life.
Each week, Dr. Jones The Advisor may select your question and post his best response to your inquiry.